The ins and outs of the energy problem

Tran Viet Ngai, chairman of the Viet Nam Energy Association, spoke with Tuoi Tre newspaper about the country’s electricity shortage: where it comes from, how to fix it and what’s next.

Despite the continuous building and inauguration of new electricity plants and the upgrading of old ones, why does the country still face a shortage of power?

If we total the design capacity of all electricity plants operating in the country, we can produce enough electricity for consumption.

At the moment, some large hydroelectric plants are still being built in the North so that area is short on power. The South has begun operating some new power projects so if we were to mobilise all the capacity in the South, we could have enough electricity to support the North.

The facts, however, show that many modern plants in the South have not worked to their full capacity, which is why there are shortage.

Why have many plants not been able to operate to their full capacity?

We now have a group of large electric plants in the South including Phu My, Ca Mau, Nhon Trach and Hiep Phuoc, which have been designed to produce electricity using mix-typed turbines, and are operated by biogas, oil or even both.

So far we have only exploited a small amount of the biogas option. For example, the Phu My Electricity Plant has actually produced 3,000MW electricity from biogas against the design capacity of 4,600MW.

We can run turbines using oil instead but the price of oil is too high right now. Therein lies the problem: many plants cannot operate at full capacity because of a lack of gas and oil which has led to a shortage of electricity in the country.

Will the situation improve once the large power projects in the North are complete?

If you take into consideration both consumption demand and requirements for energy security, the situation is unlikely to improve.

Electricity production in Viet Nam has been based on hydro electricity and thermoelectricity using coal and a biogas – oil mixture.

Around 65% of the country’s electricity capacity comes from hydro-electricity plants. In the context of unpredictable global climate change, water sources are being depleted day by day.

Moreover, Viet Nam has a limited amount of coal which can be used to produce electricity.

However, we plan to produce 2,300MW of electricity from coal by 2010, which means we will have to import 50 million tonnes of coal to meet that target. The amount of imported coal may reach 120 million tonnes by 2020. Our challenge is figuring out where to import coal from.

Regarding oil, we can hardly use oil for electricity production because of its increasing price.

We have forecast the exploitation of up to 15,000 billion cu.m of biogas a year when in reality we can only exploit 3,000 billion cu.m per year and have found it hard to get more.

How have we reached this stage given that power plans were designed decades ago?

First, I think our forecasts were off on a macro-level. Second, we have not been able to scientifically establish an energy structure. Third, Vietnam has not found a proper model or management policy to develop the power sector. And the fourth reason, which is the result of the previous three, is that we have not had sufficient awareness about energy security.

Before, we forecast the demand for electricity would rise by 10-15% each year. However each year the demand has nearly doubled the forecast rate.

The electricity sector was thus not able to meet the demand despite their best efforts.

Our forecasts on the source of biogas and coal do not mirror ground realities.

We have not paid enough attention to nuclear electricity while other countries have been doing so for several decades.

Nor have we seriously considered avenues in natural energy like wind and solar power. Such research has been limited to laboratories. There is only one small wind-powered plant on Phu Quy Island.

How can the situation be improved?

First of all, we should establish a proper agency to plan comprehensive strategies on a macro level for the energy sector.

We should avoid the dependence on a single material source and focus on alternative sources of power like nuclear, wind and solar which are cheaper, safer and cleaner.

The State should control electricity transmission and regulation systems. Buying and selling electricity should be based on the market.

We should encourage various private enterprises to invest in electricity production. For example, in many countries, hotels use solar-power.

Then we can talk about industrialisation and modernisation.(Viet Nam News)